Tuesday, September 24, 2013

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Sunday, September 22, 2013

International Trade and Current Account Figures

International Trade and Current Account Figures

 These numbers measure the difference between imports and exports of both goods
and services. Changes in the level of imports and exports are an important
tool for gauging economic trends, both domestically and overseas. These
reports can have a profound effect on the value of the dollar. That value, in
turn, can help or hurt multinational corporations whose profits overseas
can diminish when they convert their funds back to the United States, especially if the U.S. dollar is overvalued. Another valuable aspect of such reports is that imports can help to indicate U.S. demand for foreign goods, and
exports may show demand for U.S. goods in overseas countries.

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Interest Rates, Financial Markets and Bonds

Interest Rates, Financial Markets and Bonds 

U.S. Treasury
bonds, by virtually any definition, are simply a loan. The U.S. government
borrows the funds it needs to operate, including financing the federal
deficit. Ultimately, taxpayers will have to pay back the loan.
When a bond is issued, the price you pay is known as its face value.
Once you buy it, the government promises to pay you back on a specific day
known as the maturity date. It issues that instrument at a predetermined
rate of interest, called the coupon. For instance, if you buy a bond with a
$1,000 face value, a 6 percent coupon, and a 10-year maturity, you would
collect interest payments totaling $60 in each of those 10 years. When the
decade is up, you get back your $1,000.
If you buy a U.S. Treasury bond and hold it until maturity, you will know
exactly how much you’re going to get back. That’s why bonds are also known
as fixed-income investments—they guarantee you a continuous set income
backed by the U.S. government. What confuses most investors in bonds is
the concept of yield and price. Simply stated, when yield goes up, price goes
down, and vice versa.

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Monday, September 16, 2013

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Some analysts believe another good sentiment indicator is watching changes
in the margin requirements that are set by the exchanges. I discussed the
importance of margin requirements and their function as a good-faith deposit or performance bond in the futures market in Chapter 1 and noted that
exchanges can change those requirements quickly. If you examine the reasons behind the increase or decrease in margin requirements, you will learn
that it is a direct relationship to the expected amount of risk you may assume in that market.
Some analysts believe that when the price behavior is bullish in a
steadily rising market and the exchange raises the margin, it may indicate
that the market is near a top and that a price correction is close. The reason
for this belief is that the higher prices move, the more vulnerable a price
correction would be for smaller investors who would need more trading
capital to afford such losses. So the idea is that if you want to enter a position, then you would need more trading capital.
On the other side of the coin, if the market price of a futures contract is
at an extreme low, the exchange may lower the margin as it concludes the
risk factor is lower. The theory is that when the exchanges lower the margin requirements, it may signal that a market may be near a bottom as it encourages more traders to take more positions. Once again, this is strictly a
theory. However, I personally have seen several monumental market rever sals within days or a week after a margin rate increase and decrease, and I
do watch for margin changes.

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Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

These rates measure the physical output of the nation’s factories, mines, and utilities and reflect the usage level of available resources. Because the manufacturing
sector accounts for an estimated one-quarter of the economy, these reports
can sometimes have a big impact on stock and financial market movement.
The capacity utilization rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use. If the utilization rate gets too high (above 85 percent), it can
lead to inflationary pressures.

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Business Inventories for Forex Marker impression

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is said to be
among those who watch the report of business inventories, so you should
become familiar with it as well. This report shows the dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator for the future direction
of factory production.

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Employment Situation For Forex Market Impact news

The key to consumer confidence often depends
on the status of jobs. The monthly unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the nation’s workforce. Non-farmpayroll employment tallies the number of paid employees working part-time
and or full-time in the nation’s business and government sectors.
Several important components are included in this report, one being the
average hourly workweek that reflects the number of hours worked in the
nonfarm sector. Another component is average hourly earnings, which
shows the hourly rate employees are receiving.
There are two portions of this report, one a weekly report released
every Thursday morning and the other the more influential monthly figures
that are usually released on the first Friday of every month.

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Employment Cost Index (ECI) For Forex Market impact

The ECI provides a measure of total
employee compensation costs, including wages and salaries as well as benefits. It is the broadest measure of labor costs and helps analysts determine
trends in the cost that employers have from paying employees. This measure can give economists a clue as to whether inflation is perking up from
a cost of business standpoint. If a company needs to pay more to hire qualified workers, then the cost of doing business increases and profit margins
are reduced. Companies usually have to raise their prices to consumers as
their costs increase. That is when the inflation theme starts to play out.

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